Possible scenario
Terror Probe Opened
35% Chance
The National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office takes over or co-leads the investigation after police present evidence of political intent, coordination, or extremist messaging. The government uses the designation to justify tougher policing, while markets treat it as a contained domestic security event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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