Possible scenario
Ordinary Arson Charges
30% Chance
Prosecutors decide the evidence supports aggravated arson and public-order charges rather than terrorism. This lowers the temperature of the legal dispute and reduces the chance of extraordinary national-security measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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