Possible scenario
Year-End Hike
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the FOMC delivers one more 25-basis-point increase before year-end, most plausibly at the Dec. 15-16 meeting. September minutes, the September rate increase, and still-elevated 3% core PCE all support a higher-for-longer policy stance.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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