Possible scenario
Sticky Inflation
20% Chance
Inflation proves more persistent than officials expected, validating the hawkish tone of the September minutes. Markets move from pricing one additional increase to considering an extended tightening path into early 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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