Possible scenario
Inflation Cools
30% Chance
Incoming inflation and wage data soften enough for officials to slow or pause the hiking campaign. The minutes still look hawkish, but investors begin to treat them as backward-looking if October and November data show clearer disinflation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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