Possible scenario
Government Offers Concessions
25% Chance
The Macron government could try to defuse the unrest by reopening talks on the cost-of-living index freeze with civil-service unions and parliamentary allies. This would reduce street pressure but may raise questions about budget discipline and the durability of the government’s fiscal plan.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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