Escalation Into Crisis

A less likely but material downside is that protest bans are widely defied, rioting spreads again, and new casualties or heavy-handed policing turn the unrest into a national political crisis. This would trigger a sharper, though still not systemic, risk-off reaction across European consumer, travel, finance, and real-estate exposures.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.