Curfews Contain Riots

The most likely path is that heavy policing, central curfews, and protest bans reduce the scale of nightly violence in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and other large cities. The political damage remains significant, but markets treat it as a contained domestic security event rather than a broader French fiscal or sovereign-risk shock.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.