Possible scenario
Weakening Mainland Landfall
45% Chance
Polo makes a second landfall on Mexico's mainland as a weakening hurricane or strong tropical storm. Damage is concentrated in coastal communities, with emergency response focused on flooding, mudslides, and power restoration rather than nationwide disruption.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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