Possible scenario
Severe Second Landfall
15% Chance
Polo maintains more strength than expected and comes ashore near a populated coastal corridor. The outcome produces heavier damage to hotels, airports, electricity networks, and coastal infrastructure, with a larger near-term hit to Mexican travel and insurance names.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Utilities -1.1%
- Finance -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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