Possible scenario
Labor Front Broadens
20% Chance
Public-sector unions connect the education dispute to the wider austerity program and call coordinated industrial action. This remains short of a national crisis, but a broader strike would have clearer effects on transport, retail footfall and French domestic risk sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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