Possible scenario
Contained Protest Cycle
30% Chance
The government holds its emergency education measures steady while student organizations maintain weekly demonstrations. The conflict remains disruptive for universities and city centers but does not yet become a full public-sector strike wave.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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