Possible scenario
Quiet Ronaldo Settlement
25% Chance
The most likely institutional response is a managed de-escalation, with the federation honoring Ronaldo while keeping him outside the competitive squad. Ronaldo's camp has little incentive to prolong the dispute if his international retirement is already accepted.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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