Possible scenario
Limited US Retaliation
42% Chance
Washington responds with bounded strikes on IRGC Navy launch sites, radars, drones, and small-boat facilities while keeping carrier and destroyer escorts in the Strait. Iran answers with harassment and missile alerts but avoids a broad attack on Gulf states or U.S. bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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