Possible scenario
Direct US-Iran War
20% Chance
The tanker strike under U.S. escort is treated in Washington as a direct challenge to freedom of navigation and U.S. credibility. The conflict expands from episodic strikes into a sustained air and naval campaign, with Iran targeting U.S. bases and regional energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +8.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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