Possible scenario
Risk-Off Reversal
20% Chance
A sharp tightening in financial conditions could flip the market from inflation worry to growth and credit concern. In this path, long Treasury yields fall as investors seek safety, even though risk assets remain under pressure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Finance -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.