Possible scenario
Further Yield Breakout
30% Chance
The bond selloff extends if investors demand a higher term premium after recent Fed hikes and rising Japanese yields. This scenario would pressure duration-sensitive equities, housing-linked stocks, and leveraged credit.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.9%
- Technology -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.