Possible scenario
Ban Passes Clean
45% Chance
Senate sponsors reject Rand Paul's demand to put BYD authorization in the base text, arguing that a named carveout would weaken the national-security premise of the bill. The bipartisan coalition holds together and moves the Chinese vehicle ban forward substantially intact.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Tickers
- TSLA+1.3%
- RIVN+1.2%
- GMM.USD+1.0%
- F+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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