Possible scenario
Broader DeFi Contagion
20% Chance
The KelpDAO lawsuit combines with the Bitget hack to create a short-lived confidence shock across DeFi, bridges, and centralized exchange custody. This is less likely than legal containment, but the timing of two large exploits increases the risk of deposit outflows.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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