China Retaliates
−1.1%
China responds sharply to the congressional push and signals countermeasures against U.S. technology firms or critical-material supply chains. This is less likely than legislative bargaining, but it would create a broader risk-off reaction within technology and industrial supply chains.
What it moves
- Technology−2.4%
- Industrials−0.8%
- Business Services−0.2%
- Copper
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.