Possible scenario
Yields Stabilize
30% Chance
Dip buyers return if Treasury yields stop rising and investors judge the prior equity loss as overextended. A modest pullback in long rates supports growth stocks, homebuilders and utilities without fully reversing the broader tightening in financial conditions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +3.0%
- Utilities +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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