Possible scenario
Yield Selloff Extends
35% Chance
Investors continue repricing U.S. duration risk after the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs. Equity weakness broadens as higher discount rates pressure megacap technology, housing, utilities and leveraged balance sheets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.