Possible scenario
Pragmatic Senate Bargaining
35% Chance
The Liberal Party converts its enlarged Senate presence into committee power rather than an immediate institutional showdown. Party leaders bargain with PSD, MDB and União Brasil on fiscal rules, public security and appointments, keeping the Bolsonaro movement influential but partially disciplined by Congress.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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