Possible scenario
Institutional Confrontation Escalates
20% Chance
Hardline PL senators interpret the election result as a mandate to confront the Supreme Federal Court and revisit Bolsonaro-related legal cases. This is a lower-probability but higher-volatility path because Bolsonaro remains barred from office and sentenced to prison, making amnesty and judicial oversight the central political flashpoints.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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