Possible scenario
Executive-Legislative Gridlock
30% Chance
The PL’s enlarged Senate bloc uses its numbers to slow executive priorities, especially revenue measures, nominations and regulatory bills. This produces a less dramatic but persistent gridlock scenario, with investors marking down Brazilian policy predictability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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