Possible scenario
Tariff Escalation
20% Chance
The White House interprets the fall in U.S. auto share in Canada as evidence that Ottawa is not negotiating seriously. Tariff escalation becomes the dominant risk, with automakers and suppliers most exposed to North American cross-border production hit hardest.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.9%
- Industrials -2.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.9%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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