Possible scenario
Managed Stalemate
38% Chance
Washington avoids a quick Canada trade deal while using the drop in U.S. auto share as leverage for tougher USMCA content rules. Tariffs and uncertainty remain, but both governments keep channels open to avoid an immediate disruption to North American auto production.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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