Possible scenario
Auto Content Compromise
32% Chance
Trump’s refusal to rush the deal becomes a negotiating tactic rather than a break in talks. Canada accepts a higher American-content path in exchange for tariff relief, preserving most USMCA auto supply chains.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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