Possible scenario
Strategic Arms Race
20% Chance
Beijing and Moscow interpret the new command as evidence that the United States is institutionalizing AI-enabled warfare. Near-term effects include sharper defense posturing, faster allied procurement, and renewed debate over international controls on autonomous weapons.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
- Technology +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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