Possible scenario
Inflation Rebound Risk
25% Chance
Energy costs could push Swiss inflation back above target, reviving concern that the September hold was too relaxed. This would likely produce a modest risk-off reaction and a repricing toward a less dovish SNB stance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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