Possible scenario
Franc Weakness Response
18% Chance
The franc's recent dollar low could become the SNB's main concern if import prices threaten to restart inflation. In this scenario, communication turns more hawkish even without an immediate rate increase.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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