Possible scenario
Extended Policy Pause
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Thomas Jordan's successor Martin Schlegel keeps the SNB on hold while inflation remains near target and the franc stays weak enough to support exporters. Markets treat the decision as a routine pause rather than a new tightening cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.