Possible scenario
US Enforcement Escalates
20% Chance
Washington may answer Iran's UN aviation complaint by hardening its sanctions posture, especially if it sees the filing as an attempt to weaken aviation-related restrictions. Additional designations would most directly hit Iranian carriers, ground handlers, leasing intermediaries, and regional airports that continue Iran-linked operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
- Industrials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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