Possible scenario
ICAO Process Stalls
45% Chance
The most likely path is a slow procedural review at the International Civil Aviation Organization, with no immediate suspension of US sanctions or airspace advisories. Washington argues the measures are tied to safety, sanctions compliance, and past Iranian aviation conduct, while Tehran frames them as discriminatory restrictions under the Chicago Convention.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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