Possible scenario
Buyers Cap Yields
25% Chance
The 5.15% level draws demand from pension funds, insurers, foreign reserve managers, and liability-driven investors. A near-term pause in the selloff supports equities and tightens credit spreads modestly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.2%
- Technology +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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