Possible scenario
Sustained Shipping Disruption
30% Chance
Repeated Iranian strikes force shippers, charterers, and insurers to treat Hormuz as intermittently unsafe. The strait is not formally closed, but transit schedules become unreliable and energy markets price a material supply-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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