Possible scenario
Direct Military Exchange
20% Chance
Washington responds militarily if Iranian attacks threaten U.S.-escorted vessels or cause major damage to commercial shipping. Tehran then faces pressure to retaliate, raising the risk of a wider U.S.-Iran confrontation around the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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