Possible scenario
Security Risk Worsens
20% Chance
A renewed security shock in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden could reinforce Cape of Good Hope routing and raise war-risk insurance costs. This would turn a freight squeeze into a broader energy-logistics risk, though still short of a systemic market event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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