Possible scenario
Rates Stay Elevated
40% Chance
The most likely path is that vessel availability remains tight as Red Sea avoidance, strong China crude buying, and pre-ban diesel positioning keep tonnage scarce. Owners gain pricing power, while refiners and commodity traders absorb higher landed costs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- FRO+5.0%
- +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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