Possible scenario
Governance Constraints
25% Chance
Given the September 2026 finding that overreliance on AI contributed to the Iran strike, lawmakers and allies are likely to impose oversight conditions. The command proceeds, but lethal autonomy faces audit, certification, and human-in-the-loop requirements.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- PLTR+1.6%
- BAH+1.5%
- AVAV-1.0%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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