Possible scenario
Ukraine Holds Lyman
45% Chance
Ukraine consolidates control of Lyman and forces Russia to rebuild logistics, artillery positions, and assault formations before any renewed push toward Slovyansk. This is the most likely path because a recent recapture of a strategic hub usually creates months of operational friction rather than an immediate theater-wide breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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