Possible scenario
Russian Counterattacks Build
25% Chance
Russia attempts to claw back tactical ground around Lyman to keep the Slovyansk axis viable. This scenario is plausible because Moscow has repeatedly used artillery-heavy counterattacks after losing operational hubs, even when those efforts do not fully reverse battlefield losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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