Broader Russian Escalation

Russia responds to the Lyman setback with wider missile, drone, mobilization, or Belarus-linked pressure rather than accepting a long delay around Slovyansk. This path is less likely than a local stalemate but remains credible because Moscow has historically escalated fires against infrastructure after battlefield reverses.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.