Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates Quickly
20% Chance
Moscow responds with missile, drone, or cyber operations against Ukrainian infrastructure to reestablish deterrence. The result is a short-lived increase in geopolitical risk pricing, concentrated in energy, cybersecurity, telecom, and defense-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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