Possible scenario
Damage Stays Contained
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the St. Petersburg oil-terminal fire and VK data-center outage are disruptive but not strategically crippling. Russia has repeatedly restored refinery, banking, and data infrastructure after drone strikes, while Ukraine gains signaling value without immediately removing large volumes of supply.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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