Possible scenario
Baltic Energy Disrupted
25% Chance
Ukraine’s strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure begins to affect Baltic export logistics rather than only causing repairable fires. Markets price a modest risk premium into crude, especially if insurers, shippers, or port operators delay loadings near St. Petersburg.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.