Possible scenario
US Coalition Escalation
20% Chance
Washington treats the fourth blockade hit as evidence that unilateral enforcement is becoming too risky and moves toward broader combat and coalition participation. This path raises the chance of strikes on IRGC naval assets or a formal convoy system through Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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