Possible scenario
Iranian Maritime Retaliation
28% Chance
Iran decides it must impose costs on the blockade without immediately triggering full-scale war. The most likely path is limited maritime retaliation through IRGC boats, mines, drones, cyber operations, or proxy harassment around the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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