Possible scenario
Contained Blockade Standoff
38% Chance
The United States keeps enforcing the Iran blockade but avoids striking Iranian territory or sinking commercial ships. Iran denounces the Panama-flagged cargo vessel incident at the UN while continuing gray-zone challenges through shadow-fleet tankers and maritime patrols.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.