Possible scenario
Court Defeat Compliance
45% Chance
A federal judge rules that the White House press ban violates First Amendment or due-process limits, and Trump follows through on his statement that he would probably lift it. This is the most likely path because the April 2025 AP-access order provides a recent procedural template against viewpoint-based exclusion.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Tickers
- CMCSA+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.